The US Election and Financial Markets

Monitoring these indicators can provide insights into the economic landscape and guide investment decisions during the election period.

• GDP Growth: Reflects the overall health and productivity of the economy.
• Unemployment Rates: Indicates the labor market’s strength and economic stability.
• Consumer Spending: A measure of economic activity and consumer confidence.
• Inflation: Shows price stability and purchasing power.
• Consumer Confidence Indices: Reflects economic sentiment and future expectations.
• Business Investment Levels: Indicates confidence in economic growth and stability.
• Government Policies and Fiscal Measures: Can significantly influence economic indicators and market stabi

If Trump is re-elected, his administration is expected to continue with the “America First” policies, which could lead to increased market volatility. Key areas of impact include heightened trade wars, especially with China, and ongoing tensions with NATO allies regarding defense spending. Sectors such as technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and retail might be significantly affected by these policies.

• Trade Wars: Potential for increased trade tensions, particularly with China.
• NATO Pressure: Continued demands on NATO allies for higher defense spending.
• Market Volatility: Aggressive and unpredictable policies could lead to market instability.
• Sectoral Impact: Technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and retail sectors might face significant effects.
• Global Trade Shifts: Potential changes in global trade dynamics and supply chains.

Kamala Harris ascending to the U.S. presidency could bring significant changes to financial markets, with her progressive stance likely influencing various economic and regulatory policies.

• Regulation: Potential increase in financial regulation, especially concerning big tech and consumer protections.
• Healthcare: Strong support for expanding healthcare access, possibly impacting healthcare stocks.
• Tax Policies: Higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals, with implications for market sentiment.
• Social Justice Initiatives: Focus on racial equity and social justice could influence labor markets and corporate policies.

With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?

• Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*