The US Election and Financial Markets
Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.
- Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.*
- The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.*
- In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership*
*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
"As we head into the US elections, Australian traders should closely monitor key US indices like the NAS100, SPX500, and US30, alongside our own AU200. Gold and major FX pairs such as AUD/USD, EUR/USD, and AUD/JPY are also likely to see significant movement. Staying informed and adapting strategies will be crucial in navigating the potential volatility."
David Villagra, Director of Education & Premium Client Relationship Manager, OANDA Australia
Non-Farm Payroll
With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?
- Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*
Gross Domestic Product
Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?
- To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*
Inflation rate
With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?
- While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*
- Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
- The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year*
- Between Biden’s official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value*
*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
*DXY, tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Upcoming events
As the run in to November's election continues, here's an overview of upcoming events:
Vice Presidential Debate
Tim Walz and J.D. Vance are set to go head to head in New York
Election Day
The people of the United States will decide who becomes their new leader
Inauguration Day
Either Trump or Harris will be officially sworn in as President of the United States
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