The US Election and Financial Markets
Explore the intricate relationship between US Presidential elections and their influence on the global financial markets.
- Of the past six administrations, the dollar performed best under President Clinton, gaining 19.61% in value.*
- The dollar performed worst under President W. Bush, losing 22.00% in value.*
- In aggregate across all Republican terms, the dollar lost -36.17% in value while gaining 54.37% while under Democrat leadership*
*tradingview.com 01/20/1989 - 05/28/2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Our latest coverage
Take a look at our latest market coverage from the presidential race:
Key economic metrics to follow in the 2024 US presidential election: Biden vs Trump
Comparing Biden and Trump in terms of economic metrics: how can their previous performance be judged?
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How Biden’s re-election as US president could affect the financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Biden win mean for the financial markets?
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What Trump’s second election as US president might mean for financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?
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Key economic metrics to follow in the 2024 US presidential election: Biden vs Trump
Comparing Biden and Trump in terms of economic metrics: how can their previous performance be judged?
Learn More
How Biden’s re-election as US president could affect the financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Biden win mean for the financial markets?
Learn More
What Trump’s second election as US president might mean for financial markets
With the US presidential election coming up in November 2024, what would a Trump win mean for the financial markets?
Learn More
Non-Farm Payroll
With the buoyancy of the labor market often used to judge the health of an economy, what did job openings look like across the past six administrations?
- Discounting the effect of various economic events, Democrats created more jobs than Republicans*
Gross Domestic Product
Positioned as the ultimate measure of economic productivity, how was gross domestic product affected by each president, respectively?
- To-date, President Biden boasts the highest average GDP gain*
Inflation rate
With inflation intrinsically linked to monetary policy, how well has each president kept inflation at the target 2% historically?
- While in office, President Trump kept inflation closest to the US target of 2%*
- Despite being the worst-performing currency as of March, the Australian dollar finished 2020 as the best-performing currency, up in value by 11.64%*
- The dollar holds the title as the worst-performing currency of 2020, down -7.66% in value across the year*
- Between Biden’s official confirmation as victor and year end, the dollar continued to lose over 2.50% in value*
*tradingview.com. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Client Sentiment
How are other traders positioned ahead of the US Election?
Client Sentiment is a tool offered by OANDA by showing the current long vs. short bias of all open positions held by real money OANDA clients.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Upcoming events
As the run in to November's election continues, here's an overview of upcoming events:
Republican National Convention
Taking place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin from July 15-18, 2024, the Republican party will officially select its nominee for the election.
Democrat National Convention
Held in Chicago, Illinois from August 19-22, 2024, the Democrat party will officially select its nominee for the 2024 election.
First Presidential Debate
Taking place at Texas State University, the presidential candidates go head-to-head in a televised debate.
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