Analysing the EURUSD's bullish breakout and the US dollar's decline. Our technical analysis covers key support and resistance levels, and potential trading opportunities.
Chart of the week: EURUSD
We have featured the EUR/USD in our prior “Chart of the week – EUR/USD’s three-month rally at risk of mean reversion decline” published on 24 March.
Since our last analysis, the EUR/USD has shaped the expected mean reversion decline to retest the key 200-day moving average support at 1.0730 (printed an intraday low of 1.0733 on 27 Mar) before it shaped a bullish reversal of 7% to print a current 52-week high of 1.1486 at this time of writing.
Let’s review the latest EUR/USD technical chart to assess its trend bias, following a sharp four-week decline in the US dollar. The US Dollar Index has fallen to a three-year low amid rising stagflation fears and growing policy uncertainty under President Trump’s tariff-led agenda.
Fig 1: EUR/USD medium-term trend as of 21 Apr 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The price actions of the EUR/USD have staged a major bullish breakout on 10 April after it exited with a daily close above its former long-term secular descending channel resistance from the July 2008 swing high.
In addition, the daily MACD trend indicator has remained in an upward expansion above its signal line since 11 April, which supports a potential ongoing medium-term uptrend phase for the EUR/USD.
Watch the 1.1050/1.0940 key medium-term pivotal support with the next medium-term resistances coming in at 1.1715/1.1755 and 1.1910 (also the area of the upper boundary of the major ascending channel from 28 September 2022 low.
However, a break below 1.0940 invalidates the bullish tone to reinstate another round of potential corrective decline sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 1.0730 and 1.0600.
