Gold (XAU/USD) is on a big move, driven by stagflation concerns and strong technical momentum. Our analysis identifies key support at $2,923 and potential resistance at $3,030 and $3,084. Learn how to navigate gold's upward trajectory and understand the factors fueling its record-breaking rally.
Chart of the week: Gold (XAU/USD)
The shiny metal, Gold (XAU/USD), has chalked up its second consecutive weekly positive performance, ending last Friday, 14 March, with a weekly gain of 2.6%, its best weekly return in almost four months, coupled with a year-to-date gain of 12.3% at this time of the writing.
Gold (XAU/USD) current streak of stellar performance has made it one of the best-performing asset classes since the start of 2025, driven by stagflation fears from the US White House’s erratic implementation of its global trade tariffs policy.
Fig 1: Gold (XAU/ISD) medium-term trend as of 17 Mar 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The odds of the stagflation environment have risen the past week as key leading economic data, such as the preliminary University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment for March, has plunged to 57.9, its lowest level since November 2022, from a print of 64.7 in February, and its one-year inflation expectations poll has climbed further to 4.9% in March, the steepest since November 2022 as well, accelerating from February’s 4.3%.
In a nutshell, technical analysis suggests that there may be a further potential rally for Gold (XAU/USD) to print another fresh all-time high after it hit the psychological milestone of US$3,000 last Friday, 14 March.
The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) are likely to be evolving within a potential bullish acceleration, as depicted by a bullish breakout above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel from October 2023.
In addition, the 4-hour RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition at its overbought region which suggests medium-term bullish momentum remains intact after a potential minor pull-back in price actions.
Watch the US$2,923 key medium-term pivotal support for Gold (XAU/USD), also the rising 20-day moving average for the next resistances to come in at US$3,030 and US$3,084/3,092.
On the other hand, a breakdown with a daily close below US$2,923 negates the bullish tone to kickstart a potential minor corrective decline sequence within its medium-term uptrend phase to expose the next supports at US$2,882 and US$2,834 (also the 50-day moving average).
